Rod Young Turfdom - The Vulnerable Favorite
You can only make money at the racetrack if you think and act differently.
competition. Pari-mutuel betting is where your competitor is the person next to you. The
Track take-out can vary from 16 to 25 percent depending on which type of wager. You must remain
As much as possible, stay away from the post-time favourite. However, favorites often win races.
33% of the times. The question is, when will you know when your favorite is going to win? It has.
It has been shown, year after year, that favorite loses 67% of all the time. This is an incredible statistic.
The sheer volume of information that is available to players today. This just shows that there are many.
There are many variables that can affect the outcome of a horse race.
We must attack the track takeout if we are to defeat it and win in our betting.
These are the races in which the favorite will be defeated. But how can we tell when this is the case?
What will happen? Turfdom has a number proven rules that we can use to our advantage.
Determine if a favorite horse is at risk. If a horse fails to follow any of these rules, even one of them,
He or she is a favorite who is vulnerable. This is the race that we will be able to recognize once we have found such a favorite.
You can take on the higher-priced horses knowing that the favorite will lose.
Types of races) 80% of all the time. This is a great handicapping data to have.
your disposal. We must first decide who the public will choose as the favorite for a particular race. The
The program and the morning line are the main clues. The track employs a line maker to make sure that the track is aware of what's going on.
individual. Their odds of determining the favorite race are usually accurate. Add a
A Top 10 rider, or Top 10 trainer, and you are a likely favorite in the race.
A good finish in a race (win or in-the-money finish).
Below are the criteria and rules that the horse must follow. Keep in mind, it is your responsibility to notify the authorities if you have any questions.
If you fail in one area, throw them out.
Horses are rarely the last to win. The favorite must possess at least tactical skills
Speed where it is close to the pace (within three calls). If you are unable to speed up,
Horse comes from the clouds. Toss out. Turf routes are the exception to this rule. This is a problem.
This type of race places a lot of emphasis on the late speed.
A layoff is defined to be a period of 90 days or more. A horse can often run well after being freshened.
being laid off. Most often, the malady that sent it to the sidelines is corrected.
It is now ready to compete. If the first race has been stressful, it will be dueled with.
Another horse for a good portion of the race), it won't fire in its next start. This is known as the
The bounce factor is real and does exist. It has already been too difficult to win the first race back.
You are out of the horse and you can't get back on it in less than 30 days. This exception is the
Second-time starter is still a maiden. The second start in life is usually the best for maidens.
Horses today who attempt to go a new distance - sprint-to route or vice versa -- are at risk.
proposition. It is the same for a dirt horse who is trying grass for the first-time and vice versa.
These horses can only be played when the odds of winning are in your favor.
A losing trainer is one who has won less than 8% of their start races in the past year.
Good trainers win races. Bad ones don't. Never accept a low price for a trainer.
This applies to horses that haven't won in their last 10 races. Races won by legitimate favorites
while false favorites do not. Any maiden with at least six starts who isn't dropping in
Today's class should be dismissed. They've had enough time to prove themselves.
At the racetrack, nobody gives away anything. If a horse is drastically dropping in class
It looks too good to be real, but it is. Horses that drop suspiciously in
One of the last two races is a vulnerable favourite. It is best to toss it.
In chaotic races, there are many false favorites. This is how the term is defined:
a) Claimers, Non-Winners of Two Lifetime.
b) Open claiming races in which no entry has ever won at this claiming price
c) Any race where none of the horses participating can run at par for the given
d) Allowance races in the first condition where all horses have shown they are incapable of winning
e) Low-priced claims levels (less than $5000) with restrictions like non-winners.
a) Raced for 17 Days
b) A race within 24 days, and a work within 8 days
c) Two works and a race within 30 days
d) Has not raced for 30 days, but has done at least three drills within the last 20 days. Two of these
Must be at least 5/8.
Horses that are healthy can race and train. Horses with health problems or other issues do not race. You are vulnerable
Favorite is the challenge. How To Spot A Vulnerable Horse Racing Favourite